The Indiana Pacers find themselves on the brink of capturing the 2024-25 NBA championship, with just one win needed in what promises to be the season's final game. Throughout the postseason, they have triumphed over three opponents and pushed a fourth to the edge. Yet, astonishingly, they have not once been favored to win the championship.
Despite their struggles early in the regular season, starting with a 10-15 record, the Pacers were never viewed as contenders. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who burst out of the gate, and the defending champion Boston Celtics, who swept the Pacers last year, contributed to this perception. Even during the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers remained underdogs. As they prepared to face the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, they were still not seen as a serious threat.
A Series of Underdog Status
You would think that by the time the Finals arrived, perceptions would have shifted. However, the Pacers continued to be overlooked. They won Game 1 on the road but remained underdogs. After taking a 2-1 lead following Game 3, they still faced the same fate. Even with a seven-point lead entering the fourth quarter of Game 4, they were marginally considered underdogs, with the Thunder's odds at -108 compared to the Pacers' -106.
This consistent underdog status is rare in championship history. Typically, champions at least achieve favored status at some point during the playoffs. While there have been big underdog victories, such as the 2019 Raptors and the 2004 Pistons, those teams built substantial leads that forced bookmakers to reconsider. The 2015-16 Cavaliers might have seemed like a candidate for underdog status, but they began the season favored after a strong performance in the previous Finals. Reaching the final game without ever being the title favorite is almost unheard of.
The Pacers' Underdog Legacy
This underdog narrative feels fitting given the Pacers' remarkable postseason run. Their odds to win the Eastern Conference were as long as 30-to-1 before the playoffs, a rarity among finalists. In contrast, the Thunder entered the Finals as -700 favorites, matching the seventh-shortest odds in Finals history, reminiscent of the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers, who suffered a shocking upset against the Pistons. Now, the Pacers aim to replicate that historic feat.
They also have a chance to set a new record: Thursday's Game 6 victory marked their 10th playoff win as an underdog in 2025, tying them with the 2023 Heat for the record. However, they open Game 7 as 8.5-point underdogs on the road. A victory would not only secure their first championship but also establish a new record for the most underdog wins in a single postseason.
Analyzing the Matchup
On paper, the Pacers are justifiable underdogs. The Thunder boast a 10-2 home record this postseason, with an impressive +247 point differential. They still have MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a historic 68-win regular season backing them. However, if the postseason were determined solely on paper, the Pacers would have been eliminated weeks ago.
In a single-game scenario, a Game 7 presents a unique challenge. The atmosphere is tense, and nerves can play a significant role. The question arises: who will feel more pressure—the young, favored Thunder, who have faced several close losses this postseason, or the resilient Pacers, who have defied expectations with historic upsets?
The Game 7 Dynamics
As the series progresses to Game 7, both teams will have adapted to each other's strategies. The pace of the game often slows, and success frequently hinges on making tough shots. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can deliver in clutch moments, the Thunder have struggled when he is not supported by his teammates. Conversely, nearly every member of the Pacers' rotation possesses a unique skill set, making them versatile and difficult to defend. They have maintained their momentum throughout the postseason, and Game 7 should be no different.
Although the Pacers will begin Game 7 as underdogs, it may take a significant lead in the second half for them to finally be viewed as favorites. They have thrived under the weight of doubt throughout the postseason, finding strength in their underdog status. Sunday presents an opportunity for them to seize the spotlight and prove that being the underdog does not preclude them from hoisting the championship trophy.
Game 6 Recap and Game 7 Preview
In Game 6, the Indiana Pacers delivered a commanding performance, defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-91 as 5.5-point underdogs, forcing a decisive Game 7 in the 2025 NBA Finals. Remarkably, this victory marked their 10th outright win as underdogs this postseason.
Despite this achievement, the Thunder opened as 8.5-point favorites at BetMGM for Game 7, with a total set at 214.5—the lowest of the Finals. Oklahoma City entered the Finals as a substantial -700 favorite, while Indiana was a notable +500 underdog. Historically, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons have won a Finals series as underdogs with similar odds.
The Thunder also boasted the best against-the-spread record of any regular-season team in the last 35 years, finishing 55-23-4 ATS, but have struggled in the playoffs with a 10-12 ATS record. As they head into Game 7, the Thunder were previously a -2500 favorite when leading the series 3-2.
Sunday's matchup will mark the 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history, setting the stage for an unforgettable conclusion to the season.
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